Steel market on May 13th: Can steel prices still rise tomorrow?

On the afternoon of May 12, 2025, China and the United States jointly issued the "Geneva Joint Economic and Trade Statement", and substantive progress was made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States, significantly reducing the level of bilateral tariffs. However, the previous 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products has not been lifted, and the US has not relaxed its long-standing 232 clause and anti-dumping investigations on Chinese steel products. China has only reduced its steel product tax rate by 13% and steel products by only 4%, which is essentially an "adjustment" rather than a "exit". Although China's direct steel exports to the United States are less than 1 million tons per year, coupled with transit trade and indirect manufacturing exports, the export volume to the United States is nearly 15 million tons per year. With the reduction of tariffs, the pattern of steel exports is still expected to improve.

Macro level: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have issued the "Regulations on the Supervision of Ecological Environment Protection"; China and the United States have significantly reduced their bilateral tariff levels; Five departments have issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Guangzhou Nansha to Deepen Comprehensive Cooperation between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao towards the World". Industry: On May 13th, Shagang's scrap steel increased by 50 yuan/ton; On May 13th, the total inventory of imported iron ore from 47 ports in China was 148.8588 million tons, an increase of 1.2117 million tons from May 8th. News: Some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other places have issued notices, planning to reduce the price of wet quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from midnight on May 16, 2025. ——After a month, steel companies have once again taken the initiative to "suppress" coke prices; From the current trend of coking coal and the supply and demand situation in the coke market, coking enterprises will silently accept price increases and decreases. According to the Joint Statement of the China US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks on May 12th, China and the United States have significantly reduced their bilateral tariff levels: the comprehensive tariff rate on Chinese goods by the United States has been reduced from 145% to 30%, and China's tariff on American goods has been lowered from 125% to 10%. Considering that the mid year peak season is coming to an end and the transaction volume of real estate companies is still fluctuating at a low level, which hinders the willingness to start new housing construction, the sustainability of demand may be insufficient. Short term steel prices may experience strong fluctuations, and the upward trend may slow down.